Underestimating Change

Underestimating change: tendency to assume that system structure remains the same such that its behaviour remains similar.

Components.

Related Engine Processes.

Further reading.

• Emphasise that this is not just about changed magnitude of effects (eg, exponential growth), but changed structure of system. Rename? Novelty? System change?
• Arises as a consequence of novelty qv.
• can't extrapolate behaviour if changed system
• eg, overpopulation: limits to growth requires sustainability in all matters (eg, how to establish a financial economy that isn't dependent on growth?).
• Not all problems are reversible; eg, if we melt all polar ice, we can't refreeze it. Any surviving humans would need to wait for an ice age to return the climate to its current state.
• Example: rock rolling within a valley.
• Related to instinct (qv) but can be conscious.
• Solution? systems-thinking qv (SD)
• can result in risk-factor-misjudgement qv of problem in future
• long time-scope and no-urgency can result in novelty if system structure changes, hence underestimating change.

.SVG based on Barb\Peter's\past-now-futures of uncertainty increasing with time? or is this clear enough already? Ot is this a thinking trap showing fallacy of short-sightedness. Link to probability qv (uncert arising from system change).