Statistical Significance

Description

Uncertainty.

Issues Addressed

This section lists problem-factors and thinking-traps that this process can address. In general, addressing the issue requires the issue to be filtered through the processes of self-awareness qv and open-mindedness qv.

Probability

Even though results may be impossible to predict consistently, it's possible to gain some confidence that the overall result may be reasonably reliable.

Relationship with Other Components

Input

rnd var (RV) inputs, optimised sys model actions

Output

trustworthy (not random) results (or iterate if not)

Similarities

Relationship with Other Components.

Further Reading

Further reading.


To Do

Assess SD output. Is it real or is it random?

May require iteration of systems-thinking qv and optimisation qv.

Example(s) without duplicating thinking-trap: weather transients, one-off sports events to decide who's best (especially a grand final when previous matches should have eliminated performance disparities so that the grand finalists should be fairly evenly matched). Stock market fluctuations (many news sites make much of daily, or even hourly, 'trends' when they're really just seeing random noise cf. chaos (complexity qv).