Uncertainty.
This section lists problem-factors and thinking-traps that this process can address. In general, addressing the issue requires the issue to be filtered through the processes of self-awareness qv and open-mindedness qv.
Open-mindedness: learn.
Open-mindedness: learn.
Open-mindedness: learn. Beware of making unjustified assumptions about causality.
Scenario description(s).
System model; system behaviour (ie, what effects result from what inputs and assumptions).
Relationship with Other Components.
Further reading.
'system dynamics': an approach to modelling systems thinking that can reveal system behaviour.
Inputs, relationships and outcomes (effects) are frequently probability qv (and risk management).
Relationships are causal links. Ideally, these would be devised deductively using reasoning. However, the real world is messy and deduction is often not possible. Deduction is also more resource-intensive than induction (hence induction's use in intuition), so we must expect that some causal relationships will be based on inductive thinking. This introduces a role for intuition and even instinct, but it also increases the likelihood of errors in the system model.
Input data needs to be assessed; eg, significance qv.
Arguably, all computer simulations and all equations are forms of systems thinking: they relate inputs (causes) to outputs (effects).
multiple consequences, side-effects
Limits to extrapolation: changed system (overpopulation)
Chaos (complex-behaviour qv): System Dynamics: 'emergent behaviour' may be a useful simplifying tool so we can see the forest from the trees (avoid noise).
Forrester’s original System Dynamics models were not intended to predict the future but were intended to help with understanding of the processes and behaviour of the systems (Ringland 1998).
The axes in system-dynamics diagrams don't mean anything, whereas the past-now-future diagram at least has a time axis. Maybe what we need is a higher-dimensional system-dynamics diagram that has meaningful axes; eg, representing time and space (in additional to linkage between effects). There may be more dimensions too: probability? consequences? alternative decisions? Maybe we need a series of different views of the same model (inspired by MVM, UML).
What is the scope of the 'system'? Does it include nodes for the individual to influence others, or are human actions considered to be inputs to the system which comprises non-human nodes only?
Influence (Rings of Responsibility) could be represented in a system-dynamics influence diagram. Whether this should be represented within the engine’s systems-thinking process depends on the scope of the system (problem-assessment?): if all human actions are only controls (inputs) and the system nodes are nature, then interpersonal influences aren’t a part of the system. However, if the system includes (other) people, then interpersonal influences should be nodes within the system.
Action implementation timing could be represented in system model as input variables. This would allow optimisation qv to determine best schedule. Or this could be deferred to project-management qv.
One or more of the nodes will probably correspond to priorities qv
Why do some people use alcohol, drugs, binge eating, distraction, etc, to mask negative emotions caused by dissatisfaction?[BW] It indicates a decision to make the emotion go away by chemical means rather than by solving the problem to the extent possible, which shows the influence of emotion on priorities. Maybe the priority, or objective function, is to make the unpleasant emotion go away rather than to solve the problem that causes the emotion. It may also relate to a ring-of-responsibility (problem-assessment qv) issue: feeling bad about something that the individual can't change to the extent desired. Looking at the issue backwards: if the decision is alcohol, then the problem being tackled is that of feeling bad (ie, emotion).
"...instead of trying to make our responses just right for the climate of the future we should seek out resilient and flexible solutions, remedies that will be robust in a wide range of possible climate outcomes."