Assumptions
Description
Assumptions are often essential. The need arises from uncertainty about aspects of the problem. They enable thinking to continue so that we can decide on actions to take, but they don't make the uncertainty go away. The obvious risk that arises from making an assumption is that the assumption might be wrong, leading to the wrong choice of actions.
When using reasoning, assumptions can be made consciously. There are processes we can use to help us manage the risks associated with assumptions.
We also make assumptions subconsciously. Subconscious assumptions contribute to intuition. Because we’re not normally aware of having made such assumptions, we don't tend to check them or manage their consequences.
Assumptions can be based on personal experience or acquired from the culture in which we live. As a result, biases in our memory can affect the assumptions we make. An assumption might even be based on a single event which may not be typical.
Examples
Christopher Columbus
Christopher Columbus assumed that the earth is much smaller than it actually is, and that no land mass would block him from sailing west from Europe to Asia. He accidentally bumped into America. Even though the American geography didn’t match what was known about Asia, Columbus continued to assume that he’d found Asia. He maintained that belief despite making three more voyages to America.
Global Warming
Because of the uncertainties associated with global warming, numerous assumptions have to be made when trying to work out what will happen. These include:
- the rate of human population growth
- how quickly we transition from fossil fuels
- how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions
- how the earth reacts to increasing temperature (e.g., the consequences of melting ice).
Related Issues
This section describes similarities and differences between this issue and related problem factors and thinking traps.
Memory
Biases in our memory can affect the assumptions we make.
Intuition
Intuition is based on subconscious assumptions.
Busy
Making an assumption takes less time than researching the correct answer. As a result, when we're busy, we're more inclined to use assumptions. We'll also be tempted to neglect the processes that can be used to reduce the risks associated with making assumptions.
Related Engine Processes
Later, we will describe a thinking framework that comprises multiple processes. This section points forward to the processes that deal with this page's topic.
Scenario-based Planning
Scenario-based planning prompts us to consider very different situations to that which we assume is correct or most likely.
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis lets us see what would happen if an assumption is inaccurate.
Further Reading
To Do
Murdered Darlings
Related/example(?): generalisation (search for): eg, if there usually isn't anyone else on a road at night, we might subconsciously assume that there never will be, so we might cut corners, overtake blindly, etc. Similar to intuition (generalisation) but done subconsciously. [This could be an example of intuition.]
Assumptions and intuition both depend on memory.
We're unaware of our use of subconscious assumptions, whereas we consciously choose to follow our intuition. Subconscious assumptions are lazy intuition.