Uncertainty.
This section lists problem-factors and thinking-traps that this process can address. In general, addressing the issue requires the issue to be filtered through the processes of self-awareness qv and open-mindedness qv.
Open-mindedness: learn.
Open-mindedness: learn.
Open-mindedness: learn.
problem desc
scenario descs (from which systems-thinking qv SD causal models can be constructed).
Relationship with Other Components.
Further reading.
See my past-present-futures diagram. This process may not be necessary if future is just one trajectory (albeit probabilistic: probability qv). However, if there may be events that could cause discontinuous divergence (eg, GW tipping-point being triggered), it may be more appropriate to model those futures separately.
It is actually possible to plan for unforeseen events. It just can't be done with much precision. See PhD: implement a system that can deal with a broad range of shocks rather than being tightly matched to one or a few specific scenarios; adaptation.
In practice, it's infeasible to consider more than a few scenarios. If the scenarios are narrowly defined, the set may only cover a small proportion of possible futures. Broad scenarios are therefore preferable.
There is a school of thought that ‘strict scenario theory’ does not deal with probabilities (Ringland 1998). Van der Heijden (1996, p. 15) explains that '…scenario planning relies not on probability but on qualitative causal thinking.’. In this case, downstream implications arising from scenario planning (eg, systems-thinking qv, optimisation qv and risk management [probability qv]) must also be treated qualitatively. This doesn't necessarily mean considering all scenarios to have equivalent probabilities and consequences; it can just mean dealing with those subjectively. Pierre Wack (one of scenario planning's originators) advocated the use of ‘intuitive logics’ (Ringland 1998): intuition qv. While probably unavoidable, this introduces influences of personal biases, mental models, risk-factor-misjudgement qv, etc.
Could scenarios be best-case, worst-case, etc?
Why do some people use alcohol, drugs, binge eating, distraction, etc, to mask negative emotions caused by dissatisfaction?[BW] It indicates a decision to make the emotion go away by chemical means rather than by solving the problem to the extent possible, which shows the influence of emotion on priorities. Maybe the priority, or objective function, is to make the unpleasant emotion go away rather than to solve the problem that causes the emotion. It may also relate to a ring-of-responsibility (problem-assessment qv) issue: feeling bad about something that the individual can't change to the extent desired. Looking at the issue backwards: if the decision is alcohol, then the problem being tackled is that of feeling bad (ie, emotion).
"...instead of trying to make our responses just right for the climate of the future we should seek out resilient and flexible solutions, remedies that will be robust in a wide range of possible climate outcomes."