Underconfidence
“Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.”
Description
When contemplating a difficult problem, there are numerous problem factors and other thinking traps that can cause us to lack confidence in our ability to make good decisions. If we can’t accurately predict the consequences of any actions we might take, it’s tempting to assume that it’s better to do nothing at all. However, doing nothing can sometimes result in a worse outcome than taking a risky action. So, while we should be mindful of our limited ability to predict the behaviour of complex systems, we mustn’t be overwhelmed by it.
Regarding the quotation above, we obviously shouldn't be fools, but it isn't always best to be an angel either.
Examples
Genetically-Modified Crops
From 1999, due to uncertainty about the safety of genetically-modified (GM) crops, the European Union (EU) implemented a moratorium and laws that severely restricted their use. This included restrictions on imports. Several African nations depended on exports of crops to the EU; to avoid losing EU markets, some of them chose to avoid growing GM crops. Some countries even rejected offers of thousands of tons of food aid containing GM grain, to avoid the risk of introducing GM seeds into their local crops.
However, Africa faced different health challenges to those of the EU. GM crops offered increased resistance to droughts and pests, and could provide additional vitamins. Adopting GM crops could have significantly reduced hunger, mortality and disease in Africa.
The EU’s lack of confidence may not have benefitted the EU at all, while having a detrimental effect elsewhere. The risk of early acceptance of GM products needed to be balanced against the risk of not doing so.
Related Issues
This section describes similarities and differences between this issue and related problem factors and thinking traps.
Complex Systems
We may lack confidence when dealing with problem systems that have large element, action, outcome and relationship scopes.
Even if the problem system has small scopes, we may lack confidence when dealing with complex behaviour.
Probability and Uncertainty
Systems that demonstrate probability and uncertainty (due to their complexity and/or our lack of knowledge) will cause us to lack confidence.
Trust Error
When we personally lack confidence in our ability to deal with a problem, it’s appropriate to consider the opinions of those who know more about it. However, there can be traps to deciding whom to trust.
Overconfidence
Overconfidence is the opposite of underconfidence. We should normally be somewhere between those extremes, depending on the difficulty of the situation.
Demoralising
Underconfidence in our ability to deal with a problem can cause us to feel demoralised.
Do Nothing
If we can’t accurately predict the consequences of any actions we might take, it’s tempting to assume that it’s better to do nothing at all. However, doing nothing can sometimes result in a worse outcome than taking a risky action. A lack of confidence should result in caution rather than automatic inaction.
Related Engine Processes
Later, we will describe a thinking framework that comprises multiple processes. This section points forward to the processes that deal with this page's topic.
Scenario-based Planning
If we lack confidence in our ability to predict what the future will be like, we can use scenario-based planning. This allows us to consider a number of very different situations. We can then select actions that are most broadly applicable. This should increase our confidence that our actions will be relevant regardless of which scenario comes to pass (although it can't take unforeseen possibilities into account).
Sensitivity Analysis
We may lack confidence in our knowledge of particular aspects of a system, so we can't be sure of how it would behave if we take actions to alter its behaviour. Sensitivity analysis lets us see what would happen if our estimates are inaccurate or incorrect. We may find that our lack of knowledge isn’t as critical as we feared. If we do identify specific gaps in our knowledge that are critical, we can focus efforts to improve our knowledge in those areas.
Adaptation
Being prepared to adapt can increase confidence because it increases our ability to recover from mistakes.
Further Reading
Risk aversion (Wikipedia).
Precautionary principle (Wikipedia).
To Do
Murdered Darlings
cf. risk management: probability qv)
The classic quotation about chaotic behaviour is “Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?” Possibly, but probably not, because it’s unlikely that the system is so finely balanced for this to occur. It's vastly more likely that the butterfly's effects will dissipate with no measurable impact on the weather. Invoking risk management (probability qv), while the consequences may be dire, the probability of the dire outcome is tiny. At risk of stretching the analogy too far, the possibility of a tornado should not influence our decision about whether to allow the butterfly to flap its wings. [This only deals with complex behaviour, but we may also be underconfident because element-scope qv etc.]
...It's vastly more likely that the butterfly's effects will dissipate with no measurable impact on the weather, in the same way that a random distribution of particles will rarely result in them all clumped together (entropy).
Example: introduction of cane toads in Australia [cf. emotion qv].
Image: Cane toad again? butterfly and tornado?
Could overconfidence and underconfidence qv be merged; eg, 'over/under-confidence', 'Misjudged confidence', 'confidence misperception'? 'confidence error' (cf. trust-error qv)? indecision'? hesitancy? self-doubt?
Rename? 'underconfidence'? Lack of confidence? Excess Caution? Self-doubt? unconfidence?