Thinking Framework

Outcome Scope

Description

Non-trivial systems often have more than one type of outcome. Although we may be primarily focused on only one outcome, performing actions to improve that outcome may also make changes to other outcomes. Those changes (or side effects) may be good or bad.

Whacking one mole will make one or more moles appear elsewhere.

Whack A Mole Fever” by TPapi, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0 (cropped).

Examples

The budget can be thought of as an action that influences the economy. The economy produces multiple outcomes on society (shown in blue). Since a real budget can contain tens of thousands of elements, this diagram is vastly simplified.

The example of a government budget was used to demonstrate element scope, but it also demonstrates outcome scope because the budget affects people's lives in numerous ways.

The rights and obligations of landlords and tenants are governed by legislation. Improving tenants' conditions can be done by placing extra constraints on landlords. However, doing so makes investment property ownership less desirable, which results in a reduction in the number of properties available to rent. It is necessary to balance tenants' conditions against rental property availability and prices, or to provide more rental housing at public expense.

To reduce smoking-related disease (and to raise revenue), governments increase taxation on tobacco products. However, high tobacco prices create a lucrative opportunity for illegal (black market) tobacco suppliers.

This section describes similarities and differences between this issue and related problem factors and thinking traps.

Element Scope

A system that can produce many types of outcome will probably contain many elements (especially considering that an outcome is just a type of element).

Time Scope

Time scope refers to the duration for which actions and/or their outcome need to be considered.

Busy

When people are busy, they are tempted to take shortcuts to problem-solving. This may include limiting the number of outcomes considered.

Reductionism

A system with many outcomes tempts us to consider only some of its outcomes; perhaps only one. This is a form of reductionism.

Related Engine Processes

Later, we will describe a thinking framework that comprises multiple processes. This section points forward to the processes that deal with this page's topic.

Priorities

Outcomes are system elements that we particularly care about. (If we didn't care about anything in the system, it wouldn't represent a problem.) Outcomes correspond to our personal priorities; e.g., health, possessions, values.

Systems Thinking

Systems thinking involves working out how to represent the problem as a system, and working out how that system behaves. This should include consideration of all of the outcomes of the system’s behaviour.

Optimisation

Optimisation involves working out how to achieve the best overall set of outcomes. It takes into account that compromises may be necessary since it is often impossible to achieve ideal results in all outcomes.

Further Reading

Senge.


To Do

Murdered Darlings

Rejected content.

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