Thinking Framework

Aim

Goal, scope, aim, deliverable
· qualitative but at least some elements quantifiable
· generally applicable, but especially global warming
Deliverable: Second Life thinking framework machine, like system dynamics?

Goal: help with general understanding of how to make hard decisions. This may help when evaluating proposals about global warming. While only experts will be able to obtain the data and do the maths, the rest of us still need to be able to evaluate what we’re being told; who to trust.

Intended audience: normal people and, ideally, also politicians. Not scientists or academics because they will know more than this.

Some of the components can get mathematical. We won't be going into the maths here. Some light mathematical examples may be included as optional reading.

Problem Factors

Thinking Traps

Components

• Probability
• Causality
• Systems Thinking
• Risk Management
• Optimisation
• Priorities
• Utilitarianism
• Scenario-based Planning
• Adaptation
• Statistical Significance
• Self-awareness: conscious effort to be mindful of, and resist, thinking traps
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Open-mindedness: read widely, including all sides of the argument (ie, not just your own POV; cf. confirmation-bias qv)