Unconfidence

Description.

Components.

Related Engine Processes.

Further reading.

• Rename? 'underconfidence'? Risk aversion? Precautionary principle? Excess Caution?
• “It’s better to do nothing if you can’t accurately predict the consequences of action.” especially applicable to random, uncertain and complex (chaotic) systems; eg, introduction of cane toads in Australia]. The assumption is that the do-nothing (no action) option will probably provide a better outcome than taking an action that might worsen the situation. Risk aversion (risk management: probability qv). ='precautionary principle'.
• Address using sensitivity-analysis qv. But this can't take unforeseen possibilities into account.
• Chaos (aspect of complex-behaviour qv) can result in unconfidence. “Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?” (Philip Merilees, 1972). Possibly, but probably not, because the chance that the system is so finely balanced for this to occur is very small. It's vastly more likely that the butterfly's effects will dissipate with no measurable impact on the weather, in the same way that a random distribution of particles will rarely result in them all clumped together (entropy). So, invoking risk management (probability qv), while the consequences may be dire, the probability of the dire outcome is tiny.
• Deference to experts. Whom to trust? (Is this a solution component?) cf trust-error qv.